The Fed Is Quietly Rewriting Its Productivity Model Around AI
Internal staff papers point to a 0.8% structural lift to potential GDP growth — and a more hawkish reaction function.
Internal staff papers point to a 0.8% structural lift to potential GDP growth — and a more hawkish reaction function.

Illustration by IMF Alpha editorial · Reviewed by Daniel Cho
Three working papers circulated inside the Federal Reserve Board over the past month all reach a similar conclusion: generative AI is on track to add between 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points to U.S. labor productivity growth over the next decade.

Recent Federal Reserve hawkish signaling has initiated a re-evaluation of growth technology stock valuations, creating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and long-term prospects.

Regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny of artificial intelligence in financial markets, focusing on risk management and transparency in automated trading systems.

As enterprises shift from chasing bigger models to buying better data, new marketplaces are rewriting the rules for chips, cloud costs and startup valuations.